Abstract Detail

Conservation Biology

Skornia, Erin [1], Stephan, Kirsten [1].

Fate of endangered pondberry (Lindera melissifolia) in a changing climate.

Pondberry (Lindera melissifolia) is a federally endangered species native to the southeastern US. This dioecious, spring-flowering yet often clonal wetland obligate shrub requires flooding during spring and summer. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on a pondberry population at the Missouri-Arkansas border. Past and future climate scenarios were generated with the Climate Wizard Custom Tool for past climate and a selected CO₂ emission scenario paired with a general circulation model to predict future precipitation and temperature data for our study area. We evaluated annual and seasonal precipitation and average temperature generated for the years 1895 to 2010 (past climate) and for 2010 through 2099 (future climate). Over the last century, spring mean temperature has been increasing (P<0.05), whereas fall temperatures have been decreasing, and no change was observed in the other seasons. The future scenario suggests that the mean temperature will continue to rise in spring and will start to rise in all other seasons (P<0.05). Spring and fall precipitation has increased significantly (P<0.05) over the last century and any changes in summer and winter were not statistically significant. Future scenarios show a continued increase in precipitation in spring (P = 0.09), and a statistically significant decrease during summer. Results indicate that conditions in existing habitat may improve and more viable habitat may become available for plantings if predicted increases in spring temperatures and precipitation occur. However, the effects of drier and warmer summers need to be evaluated.

1 - Lincoln University of Missouri, Life and Physical Sciences, 816 Chestnut St. , Jefferson City, MO, 65101, USA

Keywords:
Climate change
Conservation
Pondberry
Lauraceae
Lindera melissifolia
Missouri
Arkansas.

Presentation Type: Poster:Posters for Topics
Session: P
Location: Eyrie/Boise Centre
Date: Monday, July 28th, 2014
Time: 5:30 PM
Number: PCB001
Abstract ID:147
Candidate for Awards:None